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标题: jonpeddie 的最新 GPU 份额分析。 [打印本页]

作者: Edison 时间: 2011-8-10 17:50
标题: jonpeddie 的最新 GPU 份额分析。
The death of discrete GPUs by integrated graphics has been predicted every year for the past ten years and every year for the past ten years, the reports of death have been highly exagerated — even this year. If you look over time at the ratio of discrete GPUs to integrated GPUs (including the embedded GPUs in CPUs like Fusion and Sandy Bridge) you can see an obvious trend.

(I’m using the term “GPU” liberally to represent all graphics controller/processors. In reality, we didn’t have GPUs prior to 2001.)

But what the chart doesn’t show is the effect of a discrete and an integrated GPU being in one system, which has come to be known as “double-attach”; which started in 2002.

Double-attach is due to several factors: After market purchases of AIBs by DIY’ers and IT departments trying to squeeze more life out of a PC, OEMs building multiple SKUs with a one-size-fits all motherboard that has integrated graphics on it, and most recently dual mode or hybrid operation techniques like AMD’s Switched Graphics and Nvidia’s Optimus.

More GPUs ship than PCs. That’s because many systems using PC parts are built for POS terminals (from ATMs to cash registers at the supermarket), industrial, scientific, military/transportation systems, and CE devices like STBs. Those items don’t get counted by Gartner and IDC as PCs. So the graphics that go into them have to be factored out—it’s not an exact science because there are also some parts that are drifting through the channel and/or in inventory at ODMs. We think about 35% of the GPUs are in double-attach PCs, and about 3% of the discrete GPUs are double-load (two AIBs per PC or an AIB with two GPUs).

When you compare the Discrete GPUs to Integrated relative to just PCs you get a decidedly different perspective.
And when you look at the rate of change of Discretes and Integrated you can see the glory days of growth for integrated are over.

But the story isn’t over.

AMD’s Fusion and Intel’s Sandy Bridge are selling well (see Market Watch, and story in this week’s issue of TechWatch). However, they are replacing the older IGPs and not (yet) cannibalizing low-end AIBs with discrete GPUs.

Also we’re going through a secondary economic slump and when that happens people tend to put off buying new products, or they buy low cost items. This is particularly true in the US where buy cheap is the norm. In BRIC and Western Europe there is a stronger appreciation of the benefit of discrete GPUs. And the OEMs like them for the sell-up opportunities and higher margins they bring.

The US is an anomaly and still 40% of the market so it will influence the results. However the growth rates in the BRIC countries are promising and will, combined with other factors like GPU-compute, keep the growth rate of Discretes up. We may not see that this year but our forecast indicates a good future, and a long future for Discretes—long live the Discrete.

Integrated GPUs are growing 38 times faster than discrete GPUs

Integrated GPU growth has slowed while discrete has picked up

Growth rates of Discrete and Integrated since introduction of Integrated

作者: potomac 时间: 2011-8-10 20:16
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作者: solidusmic 时间: 2011-8-10 20:29
主机党赢了

作者: Edison 时间: 2011-8-10 20:32
里面的观点并不难看懂吧：
1、APU、SNB 目前的销售状况良好，但是取代的产品主要是以往的 IGP 芯片组而非独立显卡。
2、相当部分的集显用户和厂商出品实际上有自行或者额外添加独立显卡的情况。
3、Intel 拥有最大的 gpu 份额。

如果说是授权的话，Intel 不仅和 PVR 存在授权，实际上和 AMD、NVIDIA 都存在 GPU 授权。

作者: SnakeLee 时间: 2011-8-10 23:38
反正就是Intel威武啊，AMD跟着后面让人觉得也是各种威武，不过数据单扯出来看还是很无力...

作者: killpmp 时间: 2011-8-10 23:53
还有就是独显需求量并没有减少，只是比例下降了
所以集显代替独显的言论是不攻自破了
除非那天人们对电脑性能不再追求了，软件也停止研发了，那么硬件的确可以停止了

作者: disruptor 时间: 2011-8-11 09:07
现在集成显卡性能已经够用了

作者: stalker-cop 时间: 2011-8-11 09:18

killpmp 发表于 2011-8-10 23:53
还有就是独显需求量并没有减少，只是比例下降了
所以集显代替独显的言论是不攻自破了
除非那天人们对电脑 ...

"还有就是独显需求量并没有减少，只是比例下降了"
搞不明白您这句的逻辑，求解释。

作者: 66666 时间: 2011-8-11 09:27

stalker-cop 发表于 2011-8-11 09:18
"还有就是独显需求量并没有减少，只是比例下降了"
搞不明白您这句的逻辑，求解释。

看图，集成GPU出货量增长速度确实非常高，但是独立GPU出货量并没有随着集成GPU的增长而出现明显下降。

另外集成GPU和PC总体出货量有很密切的关系，而独立GPU相对平稳。

另外文中也提到由于经济不景气，对集成GPU影响反而会比独立GPU要大。

作者: junychen 时间: 2011-8-11 18:34
只能叫NV和AMD开发更强悍的通用运算那样 Intel的 IGP基本就废掉了。再加大OpenCL的软件开发。就能很大程度拉到独立显卡的销量。要拉拢 Apple Adobe Google Microsofe 杀毒软件这些厂商开发。

作者: elisha 时间: 2011-8-12 12:43

66666 发表于 2011-8-11 09:27
看图，集成GPU出货量增长速度确实非常高，但是独立GPU出货量并没有随着集成GPU的增长而出现明显下降。

...

没有增长换个词就叫萎靡不前，过了这么多年都没有增长还叫没问题啊

作者: 66666 时间: 2011-8-12 13:44

elisha 发表于 2011-8-12 12:43
没有增长换个词就叫萎靡不前，过了这么多年都没有增长还叫没问题啊

我只是说集成显卡并没有影响到独立显卡的需求总量，独立显卡本身市场如果发展很好的话，老黄也不必转向通用计算和移动芯片。

作者: 骨刺 时间: 2011-8-12 14:19
最终NV还是要被某些大鳄给吃掉滴

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