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标题: NV GT200的消息(www.barrons.com)-已被驗證屬實 [打印本页]

作者: samsung 时间: 2008-3-24 17:27
标题: NV GT200的消息(www.barrons.com)-已被驗證屬實
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/nvidias-picture-brighter-stock-price/story.aspx?guid=%7BB82E0D80-25BB-49F2-9BE3-A50EFD3E8CEC%7D
http://online.barrons.com/public/search/results.html?mod=b_hpp_header

THE OLD SAYING IS THAT A PICTURE IS WORTH 1,000 WORDS
. Given the length of this column, I'm thinking I could simply replace the whole thing with one picture. Wonder what would be the right one for the current market: the Grand Canyon? A bottomless pit? An image of me trying to ski down Outer Limits at Killington? Trust me, no one wants to see that.

Anyway, I've been thinking a lot about pictures lately, after a visit last week with Jen-Hsun Huang, CEO of graphics chip maker (NVDA:18.52,[size=0.8em]0.00,[size=0.8em]0.0%)

(ticker: NVDA). Like many semiconductor companies this year, it's slid mightily. Having peaked just shy of $40 in October, its stock has since lost more than half its value, wiping out about $10 billion in market cap, finishing last week at $18.52. For the year to date, Nvidia is down 46%. The stock chart makes for a gruesome image.

There are several reasons for Nvidia's tumble. For one thing, the market is worried about the health of the PC sector. After a better-than-expected 2007, many fear that PC sales growth will shrink this year as the economy slows in the U.S. and Europe.

For Nvidia, the competitive landscape is also worrisome. The company has two primary rivals: ATI, which was acquired by (AMD: [size=0.8em]6.11,[size=0.8em]0.00,[size=0.8em]0.0%)s (AMD) for $5.4 billion in October 2006, and (INTC:[size=0.8em]21.75,[size=0.8em]0.00,[size=0.8em]0.0%)

(INTC), which includes basic graphics capability in its microprocessors and which is developing a discrete graphics chip code-named Larrabee which will compete with Nvidia's GeForce line and ATI's Radeon chips. ATI seems to have lost some momentum since it was acquired by AMD, which is working to combine the microprocessor and graphics chip into a single part. But Wall Street fears that ATI is due for a rebound -- while Larrabee looms as a threat in 2009 and beyond. (An aside: AMD now has a stock-market value of $3.7 billion, $1.7 billion less than what it paid for ATI. Amazing.)

I tend to think the market's worries about Nvidia are exaggerated. As Huang points out, Nvidia's target isn't the corporate desktop and notebook market at the core of Intel's business. Nvidia sells to people who think of computing as a visual activity: gamers, designers, architects, artists, animators, video editors. During our interview at Nvidia's Santa Clara campus, Huang pointed to the ThinkPad on which I've typed this column as exactly the kind of PC that Nvidia's chips don't address.

Nvidia simply isn't as exposed as Intel and AMD are to broader economic forces. And visual computing seems to be holding up better than business computing. The
(AAPL:[size=0.8em]133.27,[size=0.8em]0.00,[size=0.8em]0.0%)

(AAPL) Mac is flying off the shelves; the visual elements are what make the iPhone so compelling.(ADBE: [size=0.8em]34.45,[size=0.8em]0.00,[size=0.8em]0.0%)

(ADBE), which provides software tools for visual computing, last week reported better-than-expected earnings. GameStop, the No. 1 retailer of video games, is growing like crazy.

Meanwhile, Huang and his team are aggressively seeking to extend their graphics processors' reach. He contends that even low-end Intel microprocessors do a fine job on basic computing tasks like e-mail and creating documents. What changes the consumer experience, he contends, is more graphics power. Huang thinks people should trade off some microprocessor dollars and spend more on graphics. The result, he says, would be better gaming, quicker rendering of video images and an improved visual experience overall. That would give Nvidia a bigger slice of a PC's bill of materials.

Nvidia also thinks that there will be an increasing market for sophisticated graphics on hand-held devices. The company argues that GPUs (graphics processing units), with their "many core" architecture, can actually compete with CPUs (computer processing units) in some areas. Huang says that graphics processors are better suited to some computation-intensive tasks, like computational finance, astrophysics, biology and flow dynamics. In fact, he thinks Nvidia eventually can eat into one of Intel's key markets -- high-end servers -- as software developers take advantage of the "many-core" architecture. (Intel takes a multi-core approach, with two or four core processors; Nvidia graphics processors have as many as 240 cores.)

Is that too esoteric for you? Well, then think about this. Nvidia this year grew its top line 34%; in Q4, revenue was up 37%. Estimates for the January 2009 fiscal year call for Nvidia to report $4.8 billion in revenue and profits of $1.69 a share. For 2010, the consensus is $5.2 billion and $1.86. At last week's close, Nvidia had a market value of $10.5 billion. In other words, NVDA is trading at a modest 2.2 times current-year revenue, and just 11 times earnings. Barring a dramatic collapse in PC demand, it's hard to picture a cheaper play on the rise of visual computing.

作者: samsung 时间: 2008-3-24 17:31
标题: 回复 2# 的帖子
10X3X8 :lol:

作者: Edison 时间: 2008-3-24 17:33
somewhat alike the later.

作者: fenchang 时间: 2008-3-24 17:36
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作者: 来不及思考 时间: 2008-3-24 17:42
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作者: 催化剂 时间: 2008-3-24 17:42
意思就是GT200 是240 SP的东西吧？

这么会这么怪的数字，要么就是256 SP

看来架构改变很大

作者: samsung 时间: 2008-3-24 17:45
标题: 回复 6# 的帖子
大哥這個新聞已經公佈很久了:lol:

1000M 如何塞進 240SP ???

作者: Asuka 时间: 2008-3-24 17:52
还不就是NV40-->NV47的老套路 :p

作者: 阿蓝2代 时间: 2008-3-24 17:54
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作者: aibo 时间: 2008-3-24 18:43
这个240sp，很像幌子

不过另外一个角度来看，98GX2不是有256个sp么:p

[ 本帖最后由 aibo 于 2008-3-24 18:51 编辑 ]

作者: super286 时间: 2008-3-24 19:14
真后悔当年没学好英语

作者: 32nm 时间: 2008-3-24 19:39
搞不好真的就是256SP的规模,NV现在是故意在放烟雾蛋 (_(

作者: cool_exorcist 时间: 2008-3-24 20:21
240sp vs480 us谁会赢呢?

作者: madcat2100 时间: 2008-3-24 20:55
128 vs 320都胜之不武，何况240 vs 480？

作者: phk 时间: 2008-3-24 21:46

原帖由 cool_exorcist 于 2008-3-24 20:21 发表
240sp vs480 us谁会赢呢?

是240US VS 480SP才对:whistling:

作者: 9998702 时间: 2008-3-24 21:55
晕还吹上了… n卡的gpu里的流处理器能跟Intel的双/四核处理器相提并论吗？我看你用1个sp能干啥…人家Cpu虽是单个核，但跟gpu不是一个规模的…

ps:3690里的320个核岂不更牛x

[ 本帖最后由 9998702 于 2008-3-24 21:58 编辑 ]

作者: clawhammer 时间: 2008-3-24 22:02

原帖由 9998702 于 2008-3-24 21:55 发表
晕还吹上了… n卡的gpu里的流处理器能跟Intel的双/四核处理器相提并论吗？我看你用1个sp能干啥…人家Cpu虽是单个核，但跟gpu不是一个规模的…

ps:3690里的320个核岂不更牛x

看你能干啥?一个SP照样有完整功能:whistling:

作者: xiaolongzi 时间: 2008-3-24 22:02
240SP足以秒掉R700了。

作者: airforce14 时间: 2008-3-24 23:14
基本可以确定是512MC了`````

作者: D65 时间: 2008-3-25 00:03
就算上班天天对着英文，还是抗拒这些字母。

不够中文休闲...

作者: Chanel 时间: 2008-3-25 00:14
整篇文章就那么一句切题，还是注释性文字:w00t): :w00t): :w00t):

作者: squll 时间: 2008-3-25 00:35
不觉得能说明什么问题，，，:whistling:
这个core的含义很难定义。。

作者: PS5 时间: 2008-3-25 10:27

原帖由 airforce14 于 2008-3-24 23:14 发表
基本可以确定是512MC了`````

没确定啊!ty8u76i8

作者: PS5 时间: 2008-3-25 14:19

原帖由 A骨头 于 2008-3-24 22:36 发表
240SP绝对可以干掉R700 1600个SP了!

R700也没有1600SP吧?

作者: xiaolongzi 时间: 2008-3-25 17:58
标题: 回复 27# 的帖子
传闻说是RV770有800SP.而R700=2*RV770.也就是1600SP.不过觉得这个传闻是假的。要1600SP那显卡的PCB得怎么设计啊！比主板还得大

作者: madcat2100 时间: 2008-3-25 18:20

原帖由 PS5 于 2008-3-25 14:19 发表

R700也没有1600SP吧?

他是说R700决不是GT200的对手:lol:

作者: Eji 时间: 2008-3-26 04:28
一張圖比得過千言萬語....但是一張圖能傳達的東西不見得每人相同_A_
總之240sp是怎麼回事啊....XDa

作者: shu0202 时间: 2008-3-26 13:40
有个奇怪的消息说GT200是200个流处理器，但是配合512bit显存。

作者: PS5 时间: 2008-3-26 16:43

原帖由 shu0202 于 2008-3-26 13:40 发表
有个奇怪的消息说GT200是200个流处理器，但是配合512bit显存。

200SP? 240SP? 256SP? MC256? MC384? MC512?

作者: 4855015 时间: 2008-3-26 17:08

原帖由 madcat2100 于 2008-3-24 20:55 发表
128 vs 320都胜之不武，何况240 vs 480？

````你知道胜之不武是什么意思不`

作者: PS5 时间: 2008-3-27 08:31

原帖由 Eji 于 2008-3-26 04:28 发表
一張圖比得過千言萬語....但是一張圖能傳達的東西不見得每人相同_A_
總之240sp是怎麼回事啊....XDa

你想表达什么意思?

作者: Eji 时间: 2008-3-27 14:16
圖形能傳達的資料量是最大的，但是要看表現手法，否則"有些狀況不如文字直接"，反之亦然。

此外，240sp很值得玩味的地方是，光看GT200只增加25%電晶體就搞到200+的SP，就已經可以斷定他們採用類似RV770那樣大幅增加sp的手法。
由於先前RacingPHT兄提過分支性能達到需求，也許這部分未來不會再進步；
另外一個有趣的是Nehalem把SIMD指令提高到256bit(AVX)，如果Larrabee的512bit也這樣計算的話，那或許16D會是stream processing的平衡點也說不定。

作者: G70 时间: 2008-3-27 15:22
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作者: Eji 时间: 2008-3-27 15:42

原帖由 G70 于 2008-3-27 15:22 发表
关于这个问题，我跟思考聊过，他认为Rop/tmu部分占用的transistor跟现有的G92基本无异，那25%新增的晶体管应该花费在增加sp和维持分支粒度上。:a) 毕竟单单增加sp花费不多吧。

我也是覺得SP增加不會差很多，但是GT200的TMU和ROP應該有加，反而是維持分支粒度卻不見得有做....XDa

作者: PS5 时间: 2008-3-27 15:59
GT200会不会是个SP翻倍的G92增强版呢?当然分支可以维持在G92的水平.

作者: noble_long 时间: 2008-3-27 18:58
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作者: G70 时间: 2008-3-27 19:43
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作者: G81 时间: 2008-3-28 10:49

原帖由 noble_long 于 2008-3-27 18:58 发表
240sp、80TMU？10TPC的話crossbar應該也會變複雜，不知這方面要加的晶體管多不多。
應該會犧牲一定效率吧。

看来384SP的传闻是假的(_(

作者: 来不及思考 时间: 2008-3-28 11:20
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作者: G70 时间: 2008-3-28 13:47
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作者: PS5 时间: 2008-3-28 16:38

原帖由 来不及思考 于 2008-3-28 11:20 发表

我没有说过这种话啊，我的原文是说crossbar复杂度的提高会吃掉大部分增加的晶体管

如果batch size依然是32pixel/warp，那么240SP至少要1400M晶体管，这明显是不可能

不用想太多，GT200应该就是单纯的增加S ...

GT200居然是R580的翻版!:shifty:-_-

作者: 强制散热 时间: 2008-3-28 16:41
我靠，又是啥新东东出来圈钱了？

作者: johngoo 时间: 2008-3-28 16:53

原帖由 PS5 于 2008-3-27 15:59 发表
GT200会不会是个SP翻倍的G92增强版呢?当然分支可以维持在G92的水平.

个人感觉可能性不是很大

应该是结构设计进行再次改进的产物

如楼上G70和E大所言,应该是个技术上出乎意料外的产物

个人感觉上512bit显存位宽的说法比较靠谱,核心设计如何,现在貌似还不好说

作者: aibo 时间: 2008-3-28 19:11

原帖由 johngoo 于 2008-3-28 16:53 发表

个人感觉可能性不是很大

应该是结构设计进行再次改进的产物

如楼上G70和E大所言,应该是个技术上出乎意料外的产物

个人感觉上512bit显存位宽的说法比较靠谱,核心设计如何,现在貌似还不好说

说不定256bit+GDDR5:devil:

作者: 32nm 时间: 2008-3-29 18:18

原帖由 aibo 于 2008-3-28 19:11 发表

说不定256bit+GDDR5:devil:

G80都上384bit了，次世代高端再回头用256bit不太可能吧?)_)

作者: parheliaeax 时间: 2008-3-30 00:28

原帖由 madcat2100 于 2008-3-24 20:55 发表
128 vs 320都胜之不武，何况240 vs 480？

装傻o:)
服了这些自作聪明，自欺欺人的

作者: gz_easy 时间: 2008-3-31 09:17
GT200究竟是革新版还是SP增加版，继续关注中。

作者: PS5 时间: 2008-3-31 17:59

原帖由 gz_easy 于 2008-3-31 09:17 发表
GT200究竟是革新版还是SP增加版，继续关注中。

对面的人说GT200是个大怪物!

[ 本帖最后由 PS5 于 2008-3-31 18:00 编辑 ]

作者: PS5 时间: 2008-4-1 14:07

原帖由 parheliaeax 于 2008-3-30 00:28 发表

装傻o:)
服了这些自作聪明，自欺欺人的

计算的方法不对而已:charles:

作者: droganmaster 时间: 2008-5-6 08:06
说实话要是能到到96GT的性能/SP的效率就牛逼了

作者: katerren 时间: 2008-5-6 08:55
无论如何
对于普通人来说
DX10游戏时代将开启！

作者: johngoo 时间: 2008-5-6 08:59

原帖由 PS5 于 2008-3-27 15:59 发表
GT200会不会是个SP翻倍的G92增强版呢?当然分支可以维持在G92的水平.

感觉可能性不大
应该会有重新设计

作者: lacri 时间: 2008-5-6 11:41
感觉192SP，512BIT MC，再加上9600GT的效率，那确实够强了。

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