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产量方面相关
Timothy Luke - Barclays Capital
If I may, could you guys elaborate on your comments associated with the increased availability of capacity, particularly on the high-end nodes? And also, your comment with respect to yields, on how you believe that may begin to impact your margin profile going forward?
David White
Yes, Tim. You'll recall that back in the fourth quarter and earlier times of last fiscal year, when we were ramping other products and the 40 nanometer node, we had many challenges with yields and our ability to supply the market with adequate product. And we really hit kind of a turning point, somewhere at around the December, January timeframe where we began seeing predictable improvements, and those improvements continued throughout the first quarter.
And this being the first quarter that we launched Fermi, those wafer starts were done some time ago is a time when margins weren't as good as what they actually wound up being. And so our margin progression wound up exceeding our expectations. A result of exceeding expectations, we wound up having more die available to sell.
Now given that Fermi only launched in the last three, four weeks of the quarter, there's only so much capacity you've got in the line when you exceed expectations like that. And we ship everything we can get to the back end, and that contributed to certainly, the quarter on margins. And going forward, we expect Fermi to continue to be an important element of our product mix. And as a result of that, you see our guidance of gross margin going up quarter-over-quarter as a result.
Ambrish Srivastava - BMO Capital Markets U.S.
Jen-Hsun, just to make sure that I understand your guidance. In the context of capacity and yield, should we assume that there are no constraints anymore and all the issues have been resolved?
Jen-Hsun Huang
I think the comment that David was making is that the yield has improved a lot. And TSMC has done a fabulous job, improving the yields of 40 nanometer since August of last year when we first ramped it to now.
The yield and the number of wafers that they're able to produce, compound it, has really helped a lot. And so I think that with respect to manufacturability of 40 nanometers, I think we're surely out of the woods.
I think we can now officially say that. We are clearly out of the woods, and I think that's all David was trying to say. The 40 nanometers at TSMC is now a world-class node and the manufacturability of it is very, very good.
And so we're delighted with the execution from TSMC and they've just done a fabulous job. With respect to overall capacity, with respect to supply, the challenge is that the more and more customers are getting into 40 nanometers as well.
And so we certainly aren't swimming in 40 nanometers supply. I mean we are constrained here and there. I wish we had more Fermis. I wish we had more GPUs of all kinds. And so there is still not enough 40 nanometers supply for the entire world, and so I expect that the 40 nanometer supply will remain constrained for sometime.
Ambrish Srivastava - BMO Capital Markets U.S.
So the guidance implies that there is some supply constraints that has not allowed you to meet demand? Or is it there's a balance between supply and demand and what you're seeing is just normal seasonality and that's why the guidance?
Jen-Hsun Huang
We're seeing seasonality. Yes, we were pretty clear that Q2's guidance is seasonality. It's seasonality offset by the ramp of Fermi, and so we're not going to know how it all balances out until the end of the next quarter or end of this quarter. But those are the two factors, if you will, seasonality in the mainstream market and the ramp of Fermi into GeForce, into Tesla and into Quadro.
Kevin Cassidy - Thomas Weisel Partners Equity Research
I wonder if you could give a little more detail on the inventory, the new product that didn't get packaged? Or if you could just give a little more details on that?
David White
Yes. Kevin, I think in the prior comments, and in the CFO commentary, we'd explained it really is associated primarily with GTX 470 and GTX 480. We ramped that product. We were favorably surprised with nicer yields than what we anticipated. And given the fact that our ramp was all occurring at the end of the quarter, there was just a limited amount of capacity we had at the back end to get everything out that we would've liked to have got now. And so when the quarter ended, we had some inventory of Fermi die that we need to package.
**利相关的问题
Timothy Luke - Barclays Capital
Your gross margin obviously going up with the revenue slightly down. The key catalyst for that is the Fermi ramp, is it? Or are there other elements that you might be able to elaborate on just on the strength of the gross margin in the coming quarter?
David White
Well, Fermi's a substantial piece of that. I mean our Tesla business is still continuing to grow, and so it'll become a bigger piece of the mix as well. But largely, it's Fermi and Fermi and Tesla, as well as Fermi and graphics.
Arnab Chanda - Roth Capital Partners, LLC
First of all, if you could talk a little bit about gross margins. It seems like as your mix improves, your gross margins continue to go high, in fact, it might be closer at an all-time high. Is that continue to occur as the mix improves? Or are we getting close kind of sort of peak here? And then I have one follow-up question.
Jen-Hsun Huang
Well, we haven't guided to where we think ultimately we think our gross margins ought to be. But ultimately, NVIDIA's gross margins ought to be in the mid-50s to high 50s.
That's really where we have to go, and the reason for that is because an increasing amount of our business is highly differentiated business where software, middleware and other peripherals are such a large part of it. And as we continue to grow our Quadro business, as we continue to grow our Tesla business, as we continue to grow our Tegra business, where software is just such a large part of it, my expectation is that, that the gross margins will continue to reflect that. For each one of the businesses that I just described, the gross margins are better than what we are as a corporate standard.
2/3 of our company's revenues come from businesses that I've just described, or profits come from businesses that I've just described even though it doesn't represent nearly that much of the total revenues. And so my sense is that over time, as those businesses grow, our margins ought to drift towards it. And mixed with mainstream GeForce business, which will continue to be competitive, I think that in overall average, north of 50% is logical for our company.
And so we just have to get there. You know that, Arnab, we've been transforming our company step by step over the last three, four, five years. And moving away from just offering a vast chip to offering solutions and software that differentiates us and add a lot more value to our customers. Our 3D Vision, for example, that was just discussed, is a great example of that. It only works with GeForce, and so it brings a lot more value to GeForce.
CUDA is another area of innovation, and it only works with GeForce. And so over time, between those kind of things and many, many examples that's related to Quadro and Tesla and Tegra, those value-added ideas that we bring to the marketplace will be valued, we'd hope.
Arnab Chanda - Roth Capital Partners, LLC
So I'm sorry, I'm not sure if I heard you correctly, did you say mid- to high-50s, not 40s? I'm kind of having a little bit of a shock here, so I just want to make sure. I can hear your story...
Jen-Hsun Huang
That's where we should be. And maybe another way of saying that is where we are right now should not be our peak, and we don't expect it to be our peak. And if the mix of our business continues to grow as you were referring to earlier, then they should naturally take us to above 50%, right? Tesla is above 50%. Quadro is above 50%. And so if those continue to grow, we should certainly expect our gross margins to grow.
笔记本独立显卡相关的问题：
Michael McConnell - Pacific Crest
And then just looking at the Mercury data for the last couple of quarters, I think your units, last two quarters combined, they're up about 77% in the notebook discrete space. Should we be kind of anticipating a pause here as we move into the summer? And could you talk about what's been driving that very strong growth that you've been seeing in the notebook discrete market?
Jen-Hsun Huang
The biggest factor in the growth of discrete graphics is China.
The China market is the fastest growing notebook PC market. It also happens to be the market where we have the highest adoption of discrete GPUs. We believe the reason for that is because the Chinese market is much more sensitive to reviews of products and they're much more -- the consumers scrutinize their purchasing decisions much more than elsewhere around the world, and they tend to be much more value conscious. I mean they will go out and buy what is the best performance per dollar versus what brand OEMs that it comes from.
And so the GeForce adoption and the inclusion of GeForce is a huge factor for the Chinese market, and so we're seeing very good adoption in China. The GeForce brand is also really popular in China, and the reason for that is because the Chinese consumers spend a lot of time online, and video games is a big part of how they enjoy their computers. Video games and enjoying movies and multimedia is a big part of how people use PCs. And so that's probably the biggest factor for the growth of discrete GPUs.
Now looking into the summer, we're expecting Optimus to be very successful. We've shipped, at this point, only a handful of Optimus notebooks and I think there are 70 or so projects in the pipeline, and we're expecting the vast majority of them to go into production for back to school. And so Optimus has turned out to have been a very big success for us, because the value proposition is just so clear.
You get the benefits of the longest possible battery life when you're using light computing and whenever you use it, whenever you would like performance from your PC, Optimus instantaneously turns on the GPU and gives you amazing performance. And so having that uncompromising benefit in the PC and the notebook for the very first time has really resonated with the marketplace. So I'm hoping that our Notebook business continues to do well, and we'll see how it turns out.
Tegra 竞争态势相关的问题：
Raj Seth - Cowen and Company, LLC
Jen-Hsun, can you talk a little bit about the handset opportunity for Tegra? David mentioned the Microsoft milestone, I guess I'm curious within your design win base, how many designs are in the pipeline when you're winning sockets? Why you're winning when you're losing? Maybe as importantly, why you're losing? Is it mostly Snapdragon you're seeing out there?
Jen-Hsun Huang
Well, we're pretty excited about Tegra as you could imagine. Our first-generation strategy, we wanted to focus on one operating system. It was our new player in this marketplace, and we focused all of our energy around the Microsoft Zune and Microsoft Win Mobile, and I'm delighted with what we were able to build. It demonstrates that NVIDIA has created an architecture that's extremely low power while being very high performance, and that we know how to build phone processors. It's a big deal. It took us a long time to figure it out, and it's been a long-term investment, and so the Microsoft 10 and the Zune HD are the results of that first generation.
On the second generation, we were able to expand to focus a lot of our energy around Android. And although it made sense for the first-generation androids to use available phone processors, the follow-on generations of Android are really going to go after performance. And iPhones are out there, the iPhone 4G is coming, the iPad is obviously a revolutionary product. The bar is pretty high for all of the mobile players, and so they need Pro-Acessor that can keep up with the A4. If not, be much better than what the A4 can do because they have to take on the leader in the space.
And so I think the second-generation Tegra has been doing incredibly well because Android is doing incredibly well. So we're going to come to market with the second-generation Tegra with the third-generation Android. And so that's our focus now, which is the -- and I think it comes together at the end of the year, and we've talked about smartphones, we've talked about tablets. We have a very large number of designs in pipe and flight, and so we're looking forward to starting in third quarter and fourth quarter, many design wins to show up in production.
Raj Seth - Cowen and Company, LLC
So just to be clear in the third, fourth quarter back into this year, we'd begin to see NVIDIA-powered Android handsets on the market? Or that's when there'll be a slew of design sockets available for you?
Jen-Hsun Huang
No, we've been already working on those design sockets.
Raj Seth - Cowen and Company, LLC
And is it mostly Qualcomm that you're competing against?
Jen-Hsun Huang
Prior to Tegra, there are only two application processor companies out in the mobile space, right?
Basically, it's Qualcomm and TI, and they both make wonderful application processors. Our differentiation and our contribution to the space is where multimedia, high resolution, snappy graphics is really necessary. And the first-generation smartphones had pretty low resolution displays. And so snappy graphics and high-performance multimedia and high resolution just wasn't as much of an issue.
But as you know, with iPad and next-generation smartphones, resolution's a huge issue, and you need to have very snappy graphics with a 10x7 display, if not even bigger by that, even higher resolution than that. You're just not going to do that with a application processor that's not designed for that. And so that's our contribution and that's our differentiation and that's what people are seeking out in the market.
Fermi 后续产品相关的问题：
Glen Yeung - Citigroup Inc
As we think about the evolution of Fermi across the larger price stacking at NVIDIA over the course of the next few quarters, how should we think about that? What's the pattern we should expect to see? When does Fermi sort of permeate the entire price stack?
Jen-Hsun Huang
We are sampling Fermis from entry-level notebook all the way to supercomputer Fermis. So there are many versions that we're already sampling. So we're going to production with it as soon as our customers go into production.
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发表于 2010-5-14 21:50
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