(ZT) 南岛上市的查理猜想

hd4770

Demerjian Conjecture:
GPU Launch Week = t + 8(r) + 16(b) + 20

Where: t = tape out date week, r = the number of metal layer required, and b = the number of base layer respins required.

So, using our equation, assuming 2 metal layer revisions before launch (same as Cypress) and knowing that April 21st would be Week 16 we arrive at the following:

GPU Launch Week = 16 + 8(2) + 16(0) + 20 = 52 (Last week in December)


Since this will be essentially the third generation of GPU's produced on the 40nm process at TSMC, perhaps we can assume that ATI has a good grip on the process by now and will be able to produce S.I. with only 1 metal layer revision before production. This would yield:

GPU Launch Week = 16 + 8(1) + 16(0) + 20 = 44 (First week of November)

So to Recap:

No revisions (A11): 2nd week September, 2010 [20 weeks]
1 Revision (A12): 1st week November, 2010 [28 weeks]
2 Revisions (A13): Last week of December, 2010 [36 weeks]